NWP consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows a robust thermal trough impacting Wellington. Peak diurnal heating on April 27 is forecast at 13.8°C, with negligible warm air advection under a persistent southerly flow. The upper-air pattern lacks any significant ridging to elevate tropospheric lapse rates for adiabatic warming. Current market pricing is lagging this clear synoptic signal. This is a definitive short play. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden Tasman Sea low develops providing warm air advection.
