Fading 'NO' positioning. Leading ensemble forecasts (AccuWeather, WU, yr.no) lock Wellington's April 27 diurnal max at 17°C, a clear breach of the 16°C isotherm. Synoptic analysis reveals no high-probability setup for cold advection or katabatic effects to depress temperatures. Thermal profiles are firm. This is a high-alpha YES trade. 95% YES — invalid if MetService issues a severe weather advisory indicating unusual cold front activity by April 26.
