ETH tapped $2,250 on May 12-13, just 50 bps from the $2,200 strike. Currently trading $2,286-$2,304 with critical support at $2,211 (50-day EMA) directly in play. MA convergence at $2,367 has rejected every rally attempt — overhead resistance locked in. Fear & Greed collapsed from 71 to 50 in 7 days, classic momentum breakdown. CPI heat and oil spike active as macro headwinds. Low exchange reserves (14.55M ETH record low) mean thin liquidity amplifies downside volatility. Symmetrical triangle at $2,340 coiling for directional break with 2-4 days left in window. Whale accumulation provides structural floor but hasn't prevented the intraweek breach attempt. Technical setup favors one more leg down to test $2,211 floor, high probability of dipping sub-$2,200 before May 17 close. 72% YES — invalid if whale bid wall materializes at $2,210.
Seven-day ETF inflow streak hitting $39.23M weekly — largest since Feb. Channel breakout at $92.11 confirmed, RSI 65 showing momentum without overextension. MACD positive above zero. Current spot $95.13 holding key support. 13% weekly gain outpacing crypto basket. Volume drop -17.4% caps conviction but institutional bid trumps retail hesitation in sub-5min window. 72% YES — invalid if breaks $94 floor.
ETH trapped below converged MA resistance at $2,367, failed breakout attempts all month. Binance reserves spiked to 3.62M ETH (24.6% total exchange holdings)—distribution signal. Fear & Greed collapsed from 71→50 in 7 days, momentum dying. RSI 29.61 oversold but MACD still bearish—no reversal confirmation. Macro pressure from hot CPI repricing Fed cuts, dollar strength hitting risk-on. Trading $2,304, expect retest of $2,280-$2,250 support zone within 4hr window. [72]% NO — invalid if macro rescue catalyst or exchange outflows spike.
