Our quantitative models project April headline CPI YoY at a 3.5% central tendency, well within the sub-4.0% threshold. While core services inflation exhibits stickiness (~3.9% annualized PCE ex-shelter), the continued disinflationary impulse from the goods component and stabilizing energy futures provide a strong counterbalance. Lagged shelter effects continue to unwind, pulling the aggregate lower. Sentiment: Treasury market pricing reflects this disinflationary trajectory, indicating a high probability for a 'yes' resolution. 92% YES — invalid if resolution specifies *exactly* 4.0%.
