OT map scores (19-17) are always even. Dominant 16-x map finishes frequently yield even round counts. This structural integrity biases the total match rounds towards even. Market signal confirms this slight edge. 57% NO — invalid if two maps go 16-15 and one 16-13.
The labor market robustly defies a 4.5% U3 print. March NFP surged to 303k, alongside persistently low initial jobless claims well under 220k. This signifies continued demand-side strength, not a rapid contraction. Current consensus estimates for April hover around 3.9%, projecting minor slack augmentation. A 70bps jump from current levels is an outlier event, requiring an untelegraphed macro shock. We see no precursor signals for such a sharp deterioration. 95% NO — invalid if Initial Jobless Claims average above 250k for April.
