Wellington's April mean maximum is 16.6°C, establishing 14°C as readily attainable. Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs for April 27 indicate a strengthening high-pressure system, promoting clear skies and efficient insolation. Minor northerly advection is also modeled, contributing to warmer air mass transport. This synoptic pattern provides robust thermal support, confidently pushing daily maximums beyond the 14°C threshold, barring any unforeseen mesoscale perturbations. 90% YES — invalid if a strong southerly front develops within 24 hours.
