Current WTI crude at $85/bbl and Brent at $90/bbl are underpinned by a persistent geopolitical risk premium, especially from ongoing Middle East tensions. OPEC+ output policy remains highly disciplined, with voluntary cuts extended through Q2, critically constraining global crude supply. The US national average retail regular gasoline price already stands at $3.53/gallon, making a decline to $3.00 by end-April fundamentally improbable. We are squarely entering peak driving season, ensuring a robust seasonal demand uptick. EIA data shows persistent gasoline inventory draws, and refinery throughput is aggressively prioritizing summer-blend production, maintaining tight RBOB crack spreads. A $0.53/gallon price contraction would necessitate an extreme $20-25/bbl crude price collapse or an immediate, profound de-escalation of global conflicts, neither of which is priced into current market structures nor indicated on the immediate horizon. The market signal for refined products is firmly bullish for Q2. 95% NO — invalid if Brent crude drops below $70/bbl by April 25.
