Iran's persistent use of its Hormuz maritime choke point leverage remains a cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy. There is no credible intelligence or shift in sanctions enforcement dynamics to indicate a sudden pivot towards unconditional capitulation on transit rights in April. Crude benchmarks continue to price in elevated geopolitical risk premiums, and regional shipping insurance rates show no signs of de-escalation, reinforcing market expectations of continued Iranian strategic maneuvering and selective interdiction. Tehran will not unilaterally relinquish this key economic lever without substantial, verifiable concessions. 90% NO — invalid if comprehensive, verifiable sanctions relief directly tied to maritime transit freedom is announced before April 15th.
