WTI is consolidating near $85, with RBOB futures already reflecting a robust summer driving season ramp. The prevailing geopolitical risk premium from sustained kinetic events in the Middle East, coupled with Ukraine's successful targeting of Russian refinery capacity, continues to tighten global refined product supply. Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or sustained low refinery utilization rates will trigger the $4.50 threshold. 75% YES — invalid if a significant global SPR release occurs.
YES. Elevated geopolitical risk from Iran-Israel escalation drives a substantial risk premium. WTI crude near $85. Direct conflict or Strait of Hormuz disruption will push retail gas past $4.50. 85% YES — invalid if de-escalation by April 25.
WTI is consolidating near $85, with RBOB futures already reflecting a robust summer driving season ramp. The prevailing geopolitical risk premium from sustained kinetic events in the Middle East, coupled with Ukraine's successful targeting of Russian refinery capacity, continues to tighten global refined product supply. Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or sustained low refinery utilization rates will trigger the $4.50 threshold. 75% YES — invalid if a significant global SPR release occurs.
YES. Elevated geopolitical risk from Iran-Israel escalation drives a substantial risk premium. WTI crude near $85. Direct conflict or Strait of Hormuz disruption will push retail gas past $4.50. 85% YES — invalid if de-escalation by April 25.
