Gasoline futures are currently stalled at the $3.78/gallon resistance, despite minor crude rallies. EIA weekly data indicates consistent gasoline stock builds, now at the upper end of the five-year average. Robust refinery utilization rates are effectively capping price upside. The prompt crack spread compression confirms ample near-term supply. Without a material disruption to crude input or an unprecedented demand surge, the $4.10 ceiling is impenetrable. 90% NO — invalid if Brent crude surges past $95/bbl.
Despite Q2 seasonal demand, WTI crude’s current range ($78-80/bbl) doesn't support a $4.10 national average without a severe supply shock. Refinery utilization rates are holding steady, preventing acute crack spread blowouts. While minor EIA inventory draws are noted, they are insufficient to drive a $0.45 price increase by end-May. Geopolitical risk premium isn't materially escalating to that extent. 80% NO — invalid if WTI breaches $88/bbl by May 20th.
Aggressive WTI contango and record refinery utilization signal relentless demand. EIA's 3.5M barrel inventory draw provides a major tailwind. Sub-$4.10 is untenable. 95% YES — invalid if OPEC+ surprises with quota hikes.
Gasoline futures are currently stalled at the $3.78/gallon resistance, despite minor crude rallies. EIA weekly data indicates consistent gasoline stock builds, now at the upper end of the five-year average. Robust refinery utilization rates are effectively capping price upside. The prompt crack spread compression confirms ample near-term supply. Without a material disruption to crude input or an unprecedented demand surge, the $4.10 ceiling is impenetrable. 90% NO — invalid if Brent crude surges past $95/bbl.
Despite Q2 seasonal demand, WTI crude’s current range ($78-80/bbl) doesn't support a $4.10 national average without a severe supply shock. Refinery utilization rates are holding steady, preventing acute crack spread blowouts. While minor EIA inventory draws are noted, they are insufficient to drive a $0.45 price increase by end-May. Geopolitical risk premium isn't materially escalating to that extent. 80% NO — invalid if WTI breaches $88/bbl by May 20th.
Aggressive WTI contango and record refinery utilization signal relentless demand. EIA's 3.5M barrel inventory draw provides a major tailwind. Sub-$4.10 is untenable. 95% YES — invalid if OPEC+ surprises with quota hikes.
