Crude's geopolitical risk premium is significantly elevated, pushing WTI above $86.50. Refinery crack spreads remain robust, with product inventories showing draws, indicating strong underlying demand ahead of the driving season. With OPEC+ maintaining firm supply discipline and ongoing regional instability, any minor supply-side shock or continued conflict premium will easily propagate to retail, breaching $4.05. 80% YES — invalid if major de-escalation in the Middle East is confirmed by April 25th.
Crude's geopolitical risk premium is significantly elevated, pushing WTI above $86.50. Refinery crack spreads remain robust, with product inventories showing draws, indicating strong underlying demand ahead of the driving season. With OPEC+ maintaining firm supply discipline and ongoing regional instability, any minor supply-side shock or continued conflict premium will easily propagate to retail, breaching $4.05. 80% YES — invalid if major de-escalation in the Middle East is confirmed by April 25th.
Geopolitical risk premium is largely priced. $0.40 jump by month-end needs immediate kinetic events impacting major chokepoints. Futures curve isn't pricing this upward velocity. 85% NO — invalid if Strait of Hormuz closure.
