The geopolitical risk premium on crude is currently underpriced given escalating Iran-Israel tensions, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit. Brent pushing $92 signals a tight supply-side environment, amplified by OPEC+ adhering to cuts. With US inventory draws and the approaching driving season, refining crack spreads will widen. Any kinetic event in the Persian Gulf easily propels pump prices past $3.85. 85% YES — invalid if de-escalation confirmed within 72 hours.
Brent futures hold $90 support on escalating MENA kinetic action. EIA inventory draws amplify supply tightness. Demand surge for Q2 driving season looms. A $0.19 move is conservative. 85% YES — invalid if MENA de-escalates significantly.
Brent $90.20; national average $3.67. M.E. kinetic escalation dictates a sustained geopolitical risk premium, not fully priced. Retail pass-through ensures $3.85 by April end. 90% YES — invalid if M.E. kinetic de-escalation occurs.
The geopolitical risk premium on crude is currently underpriced given escalating Iran-Israel tensions, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit. Brent pushing $92 signals a tight supply-side environment, amplified by OPEC+ adhering to cuts. With US inventory draws and the approaching driving season, refining crack spreads will widen. Any kinetic event in the Persian Gulf easily propels pump prices past $3.85. 85% YES — invalid if de-escalation confirmed within 72 hours.
Brent futures hold $90 support on escalating MENA kinetic action. EIA inventory draws amplify supply tightness. Demand surge for Q2 driving season looms. A $0.19 move is conservative. 85% YES — invalid if MENA de-escalates significantly.
Brent $90.20; national average $3.67. M.E. kinetic escalation dictates a sustained geopolitical risk premium, not fully priced. Retail pass-through ensures $3.85 by April end. 90% YES — invalid if M.E. kinetic de-escalation occurs.
