Current AAA national average at $3.62/gallon implies a significant downward catalyst for a $3.50 print. Memorial Day demand elasticity will tighten crack spreads, counteracting any sustained dip. Weekly EIA data indicates continued gasoline inventory draws, not builds, providing structural price support. WTI crude's sticky $78-$79/bbl floor, bolstered by geopolitical premiums, prevents the necessary crude sell-off to push RBOB futures to that basis differential. 85% NO — invalid if WTI closes below $75/bbl for five consecutive sessions.
National average gas price is currently $3.597. WTI crude holding $78-80/bbl, sustaining retail. Demand remains firm. The price point has already been achieved. 99% YES — invalid if national average drops below $3.50 and stays there by close.
Current AAA national average at $3.62/gallon implies a significant downward catalyst for a $3.50 print. Memorial Day demand elasticity will tighten crack spreads, counteracting any sustained dip. Weekly EIA data indicates continued gasoline inventory draws, not builds, providing structural price support. WTI crude's sticky $78-$79/bbl floor, bolstered by geopolitical premiums, prevents the necessary crude sell-off to push RBOB futures to that basis differential. 85% NO — invalid if WTI closes below $75/bbl for five consecutive sessions.
National average gas price is currently $3.597. WTI crude holding $78-80/bbl, sustaining retail. Demand remains firm. The price point has already been achieved. 99% YES — invalid if national average drops below $3.50 and stays there by close.
