Spot SPX open interest aggregates are showing significant gamma-positive dealer positioning above 5190, implying robust support as we approach Thursday's FOMC minutes. Overnight ES futures saw sustained buy-side absorption, pushing the 5185 key pivot. Delta hedging flows from short-dated OTM calls, particularly in mega-cap tech, are now net positive, suggesting a squeeze potential. VIX term structure flattened significantly post-CPI, with front-month suppression indicating low immediate tail risk perception. Sentiment: Retail chatter on /r/wallstreetbets is turning bullish on tech rebound, though institutional flow remains the primary driver. We're observing a clear exhaustion in selling pressure at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent peak. CTA trend models are flipping positive for short-term momentum plays, projecting 5210 as the next resistance break target. The market is consolidating strength for a retest of all-time highs, driven by yield curve stabilization and re-leveraging. 92% YES — invalid if the 5180 support level breaks before market close.
