TSLA's Q4 2023 automotive gross margin ex-credits dipped to a critical 17.2%, signaling deep structural margin erosion that will persist through 2026. Coupled with decelerating delivery growth, the premium growth multiple is unsustainable. Current street 2026 EPS projections, even at their upper bound around $8, only justify a $320 share price on a generous 40x P/E, aggressive for a maturing EV OEM. The market's re-rating is incomplete. 90% YES — invalid if FSD achieves Level 4 autonomy with significant monetization by H1 2025.
TSLA's Q4 2023 automotive gross margin ex-credits dipped to a critical 17.2%, signaling deep structural margin erosion that will persist through 2026. Coupled with decelerating delivery growth, the premium growth multiple is unsustainable. Current street 2026 EPS projections, even at their upper bound around $8, only justify a $320 share price on a generous 40x P/E, aggressive for a maturing EV OEM. The market's re-rating is incomplete. 90% YES — invalid if FSD achieves Level 4 autonomy with significant monetization by H1 2025.
