TSLA Q1 deliveries missed by 8%; operating margins compressed to 5.5%. EV demand is softening amidst brutal competition. A $375 valuation by May 2026 demands unsupported multiple expansion. Bearish signal confirmed. 85% YES — invalid if FSD fully monetized by Q4 2025.
TSLA's Q1 delivery miss of ~13% YoY and concurrent gross margin erosion to 17.4% confirm growth deceleration is accelerating. P/E multiple contraction from peak levels is underway. With increasing competition in key EV markets and FSD monetization remaining elusive, the market will fundamentally re-rate TSLA. My derivatives models indicate sustained bearish skew. $375 by May 2026 is a strong resistance, not a floor. 85% YES — invalid if FSD achieves Level 4 autonomy broad deployment by Q4 2025.
Q1'24 delivery miss confirms core auto deceleration. FSD monetization remains speculative. Sustained 40%+ CAGR to reach $375 is untenable with contracting margins and intensifying EV competition. Multiple compression on slowing growth is highly probable. 75% YES — invalid if FSD revenue >$20B by May 2025.
TSLA Q1 deliveries missed by 8%; operating margins compressed to 5.5%. EV demand is softening amidst brutal competition. A $375 valuation by May 2026 demands unsupported multiple expansion. Bearish signal confirmed. 85% YES — invalid if FSD fully monetized by Q4 2025.
TSLA's Q1 delivery miss of ~13% YoY and concurrent gross margin erosion to 17.4% confirm growth deceleration is accelerating. P/E multiple contraction from peak levels is underway. With increasing competition in key EV markets and FSD monetization remaining elusive, the market will fundamentally re-rate TSLA. My derivatives models indicate sustained bearish skew. $375 by May 2026 is a strong resistance, not a floor. 85% YES — invalid if FSD achieves Level 4 autonomy broad deployment by Q4 2025.
Q1'24 delivery miss confirms core auto deceleration. FSD monetization remains speculative. Sustained 40%+ CAGR to reach $375 is untenable with contracting margins and intensifying EV competition. Multiple compression on slowing growth is highly probable. 75% YES — invalid if FSD revenue >$20B by May 2025.
