SPY's 10-year annualized return hovers at 12.3%, yet the 25-year average is ~9.8%. From a ~$480 baseline, achieving $715 by May 2026 demands an unsustainable ~16.7% CAGR. Current equity risk premium compression and persistent quantitative tightening suggest significant multiple re-rating headwinds, not expansion. The projected forward earnings growth trajectory simply doesn't support breaching the $715 mark over this period. Expect mean reversion. 85% YES — invalid if Fed pivots to aggressive QE by Q4 2024.
SPY's 10-year annualized return hovers at 12.3%, yet the 25-year average is ~9.8%. From a ~$480 baseline, achieving $715 by May 2026 demands an unsustainable ~16.7% CAGR. Current equity risk premium compression and persistent quantitative tightening suggest significant multiple re-rating headwinds, not expansion. The projected forward earnings growth trajectory simply doesn't support breaching the $715 mark over this period. Expect mean reversion. 85% YES — invalid if Fed pivots to aggressive QE by Q4 2024.
