Recent core PCE and sticky services CPI prints continue to exceed the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the need for sustained restrictive policy. Futures markets are actively repricing higher for longer, reflecting entrenched inflation concerns and dimming prospects for imminent cuts. Powell will be compelled to reiterate the FOMC's vigilance against inflation, emphasizing data dependency and the ongoing fight to restore price stability, driving a high word count. 90% YES — invalid if headline CPI registers below 3.0% YoY in April.
Recent core PCE and sticky services CPI prints continue to exceed the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing the need for sustained restrictive policy. Futures markets are actively repricing higher for longer, reflecting entrenched inflation concerns and dimming prospects for imminent cuts. Powell will be compelled to reiterate the FOMC's vigilance against inflation, emphasizing data dependency and the ongoing fight to restore price stability, driving a high word count. 90% YES — invalid if headline CPI registers below 3.0% YoY in April.
