Post-halving cycle dynamics indicate structural degradation by May 2026. While COIN benefits from institutional custody AUM, net transaction revenue is highly cyclical. Historically, two years post-halving triggers bear market capitulation, slashing RPU. Spot BTC ETFs commoditize access, eroding COIN's direct exposure premium and forcing terminal value re-rating. Expect volume compression to drive COIN shares below the $190 support, testing prior cycle lows. 90% YES — invalid if total crypto market capitalization avoids a 50%+ drawdown post-2025 peak.
Post-halving cycle dynamics indicate structural degradation by May 2026. While COIN benefits from institutional custody AUM, net transaction revenue is highly cyclical. Historically, two years post-halving triggers bear market capitulation, slashing RPU. Spot BTC ETFs commoditize access, eroding COIN's direct exposure premium and forcing terminal value re-rating. Expect volume compression to drive COIN shares below the $190 support, testing prior cycle lows. 90% YES — invalid if total crypto market capitalization avoids a 50%+ drawdown post-2025 peak.
