Expect COIN to regress below $185 by May 2026. The post-halving cycle typically sees an apex in late 2025/early 2026, followed by significant drawdown, with crypto asset correlations driving equity deleveraging. Sustained regulatory headwinds and increasing exchange volume compression will cap upside. Our terminal value models project COIN's equity sensitivity to normalized BTC volatility below current levels. Sentiment: While retail enthusiasm remains, institutional flows are decelerating at current price discovery. 75% YES — invalid if BTC dominance breaches 65% by end of 2025.
Expect COIN to regress below $185 by May 2026. The post-halving cycle typically sees an apex in late 2025/early 2026, followed by significant drawdown, with crypto asset correlations driving equity deleveraging. Sustained regulatory headwinds and increasing exchange volume compression will cap upside. Our terminal value models project COIN's equity sensitivity to normalized BTC volatility below current levels. Sentiment: While retail enthusiasm remains, institutional flows are decelerating at current price discovery. 75% YES — invalid if BTC dominance breaches 65% by end of 2025.
