COIN's current forward P/E of ~40x for FY25 is unsustainable given decelerating spot BTC trading volumes post-ETF, eroding core transaction revenue. Institutional flows are increasingly bypassing COIN for direct custody, while fee compression intensifies. A $182.50 re-rate implies only a ~17% correction from current levels, well within historical drawdowns during macro tightening cycles. Regulatory risks around staking and stablecoins provide further downside catalysts. 80% YES — invalid if BTC market cap sustains above $2T by Q4 2025.
COIN's current forward P/E of ~40x for FY25 is unsustainable given decelerating spot BTC trading volumes post-ETF, eroding core transaction revenue. Institutional flows are increasingly bypassing COIN for direct custody, while fee compression intensifies. A $182.50 re-rate implies only a ~17% correction from current levels, well within historical drawdowns during macro tightening cycles. Regulatory risks around staking and stablecoins provide further downside catalysts. 80% YES — invalid if BTC market cap sustains above $2T by Q4 2025.
