ETF cumulative net inflows exceeding $12B provide a relentless demand floor. Illiquid supply growth confirms hodler conviction. A pre-halving shakeout below $65k would be aggressively absorbed. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net outflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
On-chain metrics show a cooling in net spot ETF inflows, signaling potential for profit-taking ahead of the halving. Historically, pre/post-halving cycles involve a significant retracement from recent ATHs. We project a short-term liquidity drain pushing BTC below the $65,000 support, likely testing the $62,000-63,000 range before accumulation resumes. Sentiment: Retail enthusiasm is high, but institutional rebalancing post-Q1 could trigger sell-side pressure. 75% YES — invalid if cumulative net ETF inflows exceed $2B in first two weeks of April.
ETF cumulative net inflows exceeding $12B provide a relentless demand floor. Illiquid supply growth confirms hodler conviction. A pre-halving shakeout below $65k would be aggressively absorbed. 85% NO — invalid if daily ETF net outflows exceed $500M for 3 consecutive days.
On-chain metrics show a cooling in net spot ETF inflows, signaling potential for profit-taking ahead of the halving. Historically, pre/post-halving cycles involve a significant retracement from recent ATHs. We project a short-term liquidity drain pushing BTC below the $65,000 support, likely testing the $62,000-63,000 range before accumulation resumes. Sentiment: Retail enthusiasm is high, but institutional rebalancing post-Q1 could trigger sell-side pressure. 75% YES — invalid if cumulative net ETF inflows exceed $2B in first two weeks of April.
