The sustained institutional bid via spot ETFs, with over $12B net inflow YTD, underpins formidable structural support. On-chain, illiquid supply dominates, signaling robust LTH conviction. A crash below $25,000 would necessitate a complete unwinding of current macro and derivatives market structure, which remains distinctly bullish. The 200-week MA, a critical cycle support, is firmly above that level. No capitulation metrics are signaling such a severe deviation. 95% NO — invalid if BTC closes below its 200-day MA for two consecutive weeks.
The sustained institutional bid via spot ETFs, with over $12B net inflow YTD, underpins formidable structural support. On-chain, illiquid supply dominates, signaling robust LTH conviction. A crash below $25,000 would necessitate a complete unwinding of current macro and derivatives market structure, which remains distinctly bullish. The 200-week MA, a critical cycle support, is firmly above that level. No capitulation metrics are signaling such a severe deviation. 95% NO — invalid if BTC closes below its 200-day MA for two consecutive weeks.
