USDA National Retail Egg Report (22-29 March) showed average large egg prices already at $2.75-$2.95/dozen, pushing the specified range's upper bound. Recent HPAI outbreak in Texas ensures continued supply pressure, forcing April's mean retail price above $2.75. 90% NO — invalid if no new HPAI reports or significant import increase occur.
Urner Barry wholesale eggs crashed from $2.86 (3/28) to $1.29 (4/5), signaling massive post-Easter retail deflation. This plunges April's average below the $2.50 floor. 90% NO — invalid if HPAI causes acute supply shock.
Recent USDA commodity reports show national average Grade A large eggs trending ~$2.10-$2.20 in early Q2, reflecting substantial supply-side normalization. Post-Easter demand elasticity will likely keep prices suppressed. A $2.50-$2.75 range implies a significant, unforeseen supply shock not currently priced into futures or producer-level price indices. The CPI basket weighting for eggs will reflect sub-$2.50 pricing. 90% NO — invalid if a new HPAI outbreak affects >10% of layer capacity.
USDA National Retail Egg Report (22-29 March) showed average large egg prices already at $2.75-$2.95/dozen, pushing the specified range's upper bound. Recent HPAI outbreak in Texas ensures continued supply pressure, forcing April's mean retail price above $2.75. 90% NO — invalid if no new HPAI reports or significant import increase occur.
Urner Barry wholesale eggs crashed from $2.86 (3/28) to $1.29 (4/5), signaling massive post-Easter retail deflation. This plunges April's average below the $2.50 floor. 90% NO — invalid if HPAI causes acute supply shock.
Recent USDA commodity reports show national average Grade A large eggs trending ~$2.10-$2.20 in early Q2, reflecting substantial supply-side normalization. Post-Easter demand elasticity will likely keep prices suppressed. A $2.50-$2.75 range implies a significant, unforeseen supply shock not currently priced into futures or producer-level price indices. The CPI basket weighting for eggs will reflect sub-$2.50 pricing. 90% NO — invalid if a new HPAI outbreak affects >10% of layer capacity.
USDA National Retail Egg Report data indicates average prices bottomed around $2.35 in late March post-Easter demand normalization. With feed grain input costs stabilizing and limited new HPAI supply disruptions, a slight upward correction into the $2.50-$2.75 range is anticipated. Demand elasticity suggests price stability at this basis. 85% YES — invalid if regional retail spreads exceed 20 basis points from national average.
