Fading the Clippers for the Conference Finals. Despite a top-5 regular season net rating when their core trio played, Kawhi Leonard's postseason injury probability is an overwhelming exogenous variable. His recent quad inflammation concerns are critical; without his 2-way impact, their effective field goal differential plummets from +4.5% to -1.2%. The market is currently too bullish on their outright durability through two grueling rounds. This roster's health track record dictates caution. 90% NO — invalid if Kawhi plays all playoff games at 90%+ health.
Fading the Clippers for the Conference Finals. Despite a top-5 regular season net rating when their core trio played, Kawhi Leonard's postseason injury probability is an overwhelming exogenous variable. His recent quad inflammation concerns are critical; without his 2-way impact, their effective field goal differential plummets from +4.5% to -1.2%. The market is currently too bullish on their outright durability through two grueling rounds. This roster's health track record dictates caution. 90% NO — invalid if Kawhi plays all playoff games at 90%+ health.
