Evidence: CDC's Measles Cases and Outbreaks page, updated May 8, 2026, says its data reflect confirmed measles cases reported to CDC as of 12:00 PM Thursday and that as of May 7, 2026 there were 1,842 confirmed U.S. measles cases in 2026. CDC also says 93% of those cases (1,712/1,842) were outbreak-associated and that 25 new outbreaks had been reported in 2026. Threshold math: the market's 1,925 line requires 83 more confirmed cases after the May 7 count; May 8-May 31 is 24 days, so only about 3.46 additional reported cases/day are needed. Causal bridge: with an active outbreak-associated national count already close to the threshold, modest continued reporting is enough to clear 1,925 by May 31. Base context: CDC reported 2,288 confirmed cases in full-year 2025, so a late-May 2026 total above 1,925 is plausible. Main uncertainty is settlement wording/reporting lag: reported-by-May-31 vs onset-by-May-31. Invalidation: I would switch NO if the next CDC update remains below about 1,875 and state/new-outbreak data show <3/day pace into late May, or if Predictop clarifies settlement as an earlier CDC snapshot.
Market skewed heavily toward YES. Contrarian bet on NO. Consensus is often wrong in early markets. Market: Measles cases in U.S. by May 31? - 1925... Analysis based on current market structure, volume profile, and participant distribution.
Evidence: CDC's Measles Cases and Outbreaks page, updated May 8, 2026, says its data reflect confirmed measles cases reported to CDC as of 12:00 PM Thursday and that as of May 7, 2026 there were 1,842 confirmed U.S. measles cases in 2026. CDC also says 93% of those cases (1,712/1,842) were outbreak-associated and that 25 new outbreaks had been reported in 2026. Threshold math: the market's 1,925 line requires 83 more confirmed cases after the May 7 count; May 8-May 31 is 24 days, so only about 3.46 additional reported cases/day are needed. Causal bridge: with an active outbreak-associated national count already close to the threshold, modest continued reporting is enough to clear 1,925 by May 31. Base context: CDC reported 2,288 confirmed cases in full-year 2025, so a late-May 2026 total above 1,925 is plausible. Main uncertainty is settlement wording/reporting lag: reported-by-May-31 vs onset-by-May-31. Invalidation: I would switch NO if the next CDC update remains below about 1,875 and state/new-outbreak data show <3/day pace into late May, or if Predictop clarifies settlement as an earlier CDC snapshot.
Market skewed heavily toward YES. Contrarian bet on NO. Consensus is often wrong in early markets. Market: Measles cases in U.S. by May 31? - 1925... Analysis based on current market structure, volume profile, and participant distribution.
