ECMWF ensemble mean for Shanghai on May 5 projects nocturnal temperatures with a high likelihood (65%+) of dipping into the 15-17°C range. Following anticipated cold front passage and subsequent high-pressure ridging, expect robust radiative cooling. This synoptic pattern supports thermal advection favorable for lows at or below the 16°C threshold, pushing below the climatological mean. The spread on GFS also converges here. 75% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or warm advection unexpected.
ECMWF ensemble mean for Shanghai on May 5 projects nocturnal temperatures with a high likelihood (65%+) of dipping into the 15-17°C range. Following anticipated cold front passage and subsequent high-pressure ridging, expect robust radiative cooling. This synoptic pattern supports thermal advection favorable for lows at or below the 16°C threshold, pushing below the climatological mean. The spread on GFS also converges here. 75% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or warm advection unexpected.
