Current global model ensemble means (GFS 12z/ECMWF 00z) consistently project a strong warm advection pattern holding over NYC into May 5th. This elevates boundary layer temperatures and limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The urban heat island effect will further dampen any significant dip. With mean lows around 66-67°F, hitting 64-65°F is highly probable during the pre-dawn observation window. 85% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to colder airmass advection post-48hr.
Current global model ensemble means (GFS 12z/ECMWF 00z) consistently project a strong warm advection pattern holding over NYC into May 5th. This elevates boundary layer temperatures and limits nocturnal radiative cooling. The urban heat island effect will further dampen any significant dip. With mean lows around 66-67°F, hitting 64-65°F is highly probable during the pre-dawn observation window. 85% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to colder airmass advection post-48hr.
