GFS 06Z and ECMWF 00Z runs show robust agreement on a post-frontal airmass establishing over NYC by April 27th. Expect efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northerly flow. Ensemble mean indicates a 48.2°F low, with 70% of GEFS members printing within the 47-50°F window. The tight cluster around the 48-49°F band presents a high-probability event. I'm backing the direct hit. 85% YES — invalid if cloud cover exceeds 30% after midnight.
GFS 06Z and ECMWF 00Z runs show robust agreement on a post-frontal airmass establishing over NYC by April 27th. Expect efficient nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northerly flow. Ensemble mean indicates a 48.2°F low, with 70% of GEFS members printing within the 47-50°F window. The tight cluster around the 48-49°F band presents a high-probability event. I'm backing the direct hit. 85% YES — invalid if cloud cover exceeds 30% after midnight.
