GFS and ECMWF ensemble means consistently forecast anomalously warm overnight minimums across South Florida. A persistent ridge aloft, coupled with robust southerly advection, will keep the nocturnal boundary layer suppressed and trap heat. Current deterministic runs show a 70% probability for Miami's low to exceed 75°F, with a high confidence interval centered on 76-77°F. This thermal profile suggests a definitive breach of typical late-April lows. 90% YES — invalid if a strong, unexpected cold front passes.
GFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate mean lows near 72-74°F. Boundary layer cooling and typical late-April climatology make a 76-77°F low highly improbable. 90% NO — invalid if robust ridging delivers extreme 850mb temp anomalies.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means consistently forecast anomalously warm overnight minimums across South Florida. A persistent ridge aloft, coupled with robust southerly advection, will keep the nocturnal boundary layer suppressed and trap heat. Current deterministic runs show a 70% probability for Miami's low to exceed 75°F, with a high confidence interval centered on 76-77°F. This thermal profile suggests a definitive breach of typical late-April lows. 90% YES — invalid if a strong, unexpected cold front passes.
GFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate mean lows near 72-74°F. Boundary layer cooling and typical late-April climatology make a 76-77°F low highly improbable. 90% NO — invalid if robust ridging delivers extreme 850mb temp anomalies.
