The 06Z ECMWF ensemble mean projects an 850 hPa thermal profile around +4°C over London for May 5. Critically, the prevailing anticyclonic synoptic pattern ensures persistent clear nocturnal skies and light surface winds, maximizing radiative cooling potential. This, combined with a relatively low dew point depression, will allow surface temperatures to plummet efficiently. The threshold of 9°C will be breached downwards, even factoring the UHI effect. Market signal is unequivocally for lower lows. 90% YES — invalid if widespread cloud cover develops overnight.
The 06Z ECMWF ensemble mean projects an 850 hPa thermal profile around +4°C over London for May 5. Critically, the prevailing anticyclonic synoptic pattern ensures persistent clear nocturnal skies and light surface winds, maximizing radiative cooling potential. This, combined with a relatively low dew point depression, will allow surface temperatures to plummet efficiently. The threshold of 9°C will be breached downwards, even factoring the UHI effect. Market signal is unequivocally for lower lows. 90% YES — invalid if widespread cloud cover develops overnight.
