ECMWF ensemble means for May 5th depict a robust high-pressure cell establishing, facilitating substantial nocturnal radiative cooling. 850 hPa temperatures are forecast consistently between 0-2°C, a clear signal for surface minima well below 12°C. Clear skies and light winds will exacerbate boundary layer temperature inversions, driving temperatures down. This setup strongly favors a significant undershoot of the 12°C threshold. 90% YES — invalid if a significant pre-frontal warm advection materializes.
ECMWF ensemble means for May 5th depict a robust high-pressure cell establishing, facilitating substantial nocturnal radiative cooling. 850 hPa temperatures are forecast consistently between 0-2°C, a clear signal for surface minima well below 12°C. Clear skies and light winds will exacerbate boundary layer temperature inversions, driving temperatures down. This setup strongly favors a significant undershoot of the 12°C threshold. 90% YES — invalid if a significant pre-frontal warm advection materializes.
