Climatological baseline for London late April minimums averages 6.8°C. Current ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs for April 28 show 2m minimum temperatures primarily distributed between 7°C and 10°C. Only outlier members, predicting significant warm advection or persistent stratus, push lows to 11°C+. The probability distribution firmly favors efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the low below threshold. 85% YES — invalid if a strong frontal boundary stalls over London.
Climatological baseline for London late April minimums averages 6.8°C. Current ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs for April 28 show 2m minimum temperatures primarily distributed between 7°C and 10°C. Only outlier members, predicting significant warm advection or persistent stratus, push lows to 11°C+. The probability distribution firmly favors efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the low below threshold. 85% YES — invalid if a strong frontal boundary stalls over London.
