Galarneau's implied hold advantage (82% L2M) is marginal against Walton's persistent return game (23% break rate L2M on hard). This 23.5 line is soft, underpricing the probability of extended sets. We project high TB frequency and extended baseline rallies. Even a straight-sets win, like 7-6, 7-5, breaches the total, and the probability of a three-setter is significantly undervalued.
Galarneau's implied hold advantage (82% L2M) is marginal against Walton's persistent return game (23% break rate L2M on hard). This 23.5 line is soft, underpricing the probability of extended sets. We project high TB frequency and extended baseline rallies. Even a straight-sets win, like 7-6, 7-5, breaches the total, and the probability of a three-setter is significantly undervalued.
