Current YTD moment magnitude 7.0+ seismicity stands at 7 events as of May 15th. The annualized historical mean global flux for M7.0+ events is 15-20. To hit the 11-strike by June 30th, we'd require 4 additional ruptures in the next 45 days. This translates to an anomalous M7.0+ event rate of approximately 2.67 events/month, nearly double the average. Subduction zone stress accumulation models do not project such heightened short-term seismic release. Strongly undertrading this line. 90% NO — invalid if a significant M8.0+ interplate event occurs by June 15th.
Historical seismic catalogs show a mean of ~8.5 global M7.0+ events in H1 over the past five years, with only 2021 slightly exceeding 10. Current geodynamic stress tensors do not indicate an anomalous precursory phase for elevated activity. The 11-strike price implies a significant deviation from established statistical trending and recent low-variance seismicity rates. We're short on this. 88% NO — invalid if cumulative seismic moment release for M6.0+ events jumps 2.5x pre-June 10 average.
Current YTD moment magnitude 7.0+ seismicity stands at 7 events as of May 15th. The annualized historical mean global flux for M7.0+ events is 15-20. To hit the 11-strike by June 30th, we'd require 4 additional ruptures in the next 45 days. This translates to an anomalous M7.0+ event rate of approximately 2.67 events/month, nearly double the average. Subduction zone stress accumulation models do not project such heightened short-term seismic release. Strongly undertrading this line. 90% NO — invalid if a significant M8.0+ interplate event occurs by June 15th.
Historical seismic catalogs show a mean of ~8.5 global M7.0+ events in H1 over the past five years, with only 2021 slightly exceeding 10. Current geodynamic stress tensors do not indicate an anomalous precursory phase for elevated activity. The 11-strike price implies a significant deviation from established statistical trending and recent low-variance seismicity rates. We're short on this. 88% NO — invalid if cumulative seismic moment release for M6.0+ events jumps 2.5x pre-June 10 average.
