ECMWF ensemble data for Wellington on April 28 shows a high-probability scenario for a deep upper-air trough tracking southeast of NZ, driving a sustained southerly advection. This synoptic pattern, combined with expected extensive cloud cover and precipitation, will sharply limit diurnal heating. Surface thermal profiles are firmly anchored below the 14°C isotherm. Expect max temp suppression. 90% YES — invalid if ridging establishes north of Cook Strait.
ECMWF ensemble data for Wellington on April 28 shows a high-probability scenario for a deep upper-air trough tracking southeast of NZ, driving a sustained southerly advection. This synoptic pattern, combined with expected extensive cloud cover and precipitation, will sharply limit diurnal heating. Surface thermal profiles are firmly anchored below the 14°C isotherm. Expect max temp suppression. 90% YES — invalid if ridging establishes north of Cook Strait.
