Robust GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a persistent Tasman Sea ridge driving anomalous warm air advection into Wellington for April 28. The 50th percentile of ensemble runs pegs the max diurnal temperature at 15.8°C, with only minor probability tails dropping below 13°C. Synoptic analysis shows no imminent southerly surges or significant cyclonic activity to depress thermal profiles. [92]% YES — invalid if 06Z ECMWF shifts median high below 13°C.
Robust GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a persistent Tasman Sea ridge driving anomalous warm air advection into Wellington for April 28. The 50th percentile of ensemble runs pegs the max diurnal temperature at 15.8°C, with only minor probability tails dropping below 13°C. Synoptic analysis shows no imminent southerly surges or significant cyclonic activity to depress thermal profiles. [92]% YES — invalid if 06Z ECMWF shifts median high below 13°C.
