Historical thermal climatology for Wellington in late April indicates a mean maximum near 16°C. A 10°C or below diurnal peak necessitates extreme southerly advection or a persistent polar airmass intrusion, a rare synoptic anomaly for the region. Current long-range models show no such high-amplitude troughing or blocking patterns generating significant cold-air damming. The probability stack heavily against this low-end isotherm. 95% NO — invalid if MetService Wellington (Kelburn) max temp data is unrecorded for April 27.
Historical thermal climatology for Wellington in late April indicates a mean maximum near 16°C. A 10°C or below diurnal peak necessitates extreme southerly advection or a persistent polar airmass intrusion, a rare synoptic anomaly for the region. Current long-range models show no such high-amplitude troughing or blocking patterns generating significant cold-air damming. The probability stack heavily against this low-end isotherm. 95% NO — invalid if MetService Wellington (Kelburn) max temp data is unrecorded for April 27.
