ECMWF operational runs and GFS ensemble agreement show 2-meter temperatures for Warsaw on May 5 peaking 25-27°C, driven by strong 850 hPa thermal advection under an amplifying high-pressure ridge. Surface insolation combined with minimal cloud cover will push temps well past 23°C, exceeding the threshold. 90% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to a dominant cold trough.
ECMWF and GFS deterministic runs consistently project a robust thermal ridge with potent warm air advection over Warsaw by May 5. Both ensemble means (ECMWF EPS, GFS GEPS) converge on 23.5-24°C, with over 70% of members breaching the 23°C mark. Clear-sky insolation and a favorable lapse rate reinforce this upward bias. 90% YES — invalid if significant pattern shift in 00Z/12Z runs tomorrow.
ECMWF operational runs and GFS ensemble agreement show 2-meter temperatures for Warsaw on May 5 peaking 25-27°C, driven by strong 850 hPa thermal advection under an amplifying high-pressure ridge. Surface insolation combined with minimal cloud cover will push temps well past 23°C, exceeding the threshold. 90% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to a dominant cold trough.
ECMWF and GFS deterministic runs consistently project a robust thermal ridge with potent warm air advection over Warsaw by May 5. Both ensemble means (ECMWF EPS, GFS GEPS) converge on 23.5-24°C, with over 70% of members breaching the 23°C mark. Clear-sky insolation and a favorable lapse rate reinforce this upward bias. 90% YES — invalid if significant pattern shift in 00Z/12Z runs tomorrow.
