Latest ECMWF 12Z operational run forecasts strong SW advection ahead of a weak trough, establishing a transient pre-frontal warm sector over the GTHA. High-resolution ICON model shows 80% clear sky probability, maximizing insolation and diurnal heating. GFS ensembles are also consolidating on this warmer thermal profile, projecting 16.8°C. Expect thermal inertia to drive past 15°C with ease. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate robust warm air advection from a nascent ridge pattern over the Great Lakes. 850 hPa temperatures are consistently progged above +6°C for May 6, pushing surface maxima well past 15°C. While lake breeze could locally cap coastal readings, inland stations will easily breach this low threshold. The synoptic setup heavily favors exceeding 15°C. 92% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or an unexpected cold frontal passage develops.
YES. GFS and ECMWF ensembles exhibit high-confidence consensus for significant warm advection into the GTA. A robust upper-level ridge builds over the Great Lakes, establishing persistent southerly flow. Expect strong diurnal heating to easily propel surface temperatures well past the 15°C threshold. We project a substantial positive thermal anomaly. 98% YES — invalid if unexpected northerly low-level wind shear develops.
Latest ECMWF 12Z operational run forecasts strong SW advection ahead of a weak trough, establishing a transient pre-frontal warm sector over the GTHA. High-resolution ICON model shows 80% clear sky probability, maximizing insolation and diurnal heating. GFS ensembles are also consolidating on this warmer thermal profile, projecting 16.8°C. Expect thermal inertia to drive past 15°C with ease. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate robust warm air advection from a nascent ridge pattern over the Great Lakes. 850 hPa temperatures are consistently progged above +6°C for May 6, pushing surface maxima well past 15°C. While lake breeze could locally cap coastal readings, inland stations will easily breach this low threshold. The synoptic setup heavily favors exceeding 15°C. 92% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or an unexpected cold frontal passage develops.
YES. GFS and ECMWF ensembles exhibit high-confidence consensus for significant warm advection into the GTA. A robust upper-level ridge builds over the Great Lakes, establishing persistent southerly flow. Expect strong diurnal heating to easily propel surface temperatures well past the 15°C threshold. We project a substantial positive thermal anomaly. 98% YES — invalid if unexpected northerly low-level wind shear develops.
