GFS 00z and ECMWF 12z ensembles indicate strong thermal advection and a persistent ridge building over Southern Ontario for May 5. 850mb temperatures are forecasted at +12°C, translating to surface highs well into the low 20s with efficient boundary layer mixing. This synoptic pattern strongly supports exceeding 17°C. The current model consensus has high agreement. 90% YES — invalid if significant cold air advection materializes post-trough passage.
Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance paints a clear picture: a strong upper-level ridge establishes over the Great Lakes by May 5. This synoptic feature drives significant thermal advection from the southwest, ensuring robust boundary layer warming. Ensemble mean high temperatures are consistently projecting 19-22°C, well above the 17°C threshold. The market undervalues this high-confidence warm up. 95% YES — invalid if a major cyclonic shift accelerates cold air intrusion before May 5.
GFS 00z and ECMWF 12z ensembles indicate strong thermal advection and a persistent ridge building over Southern Ontario for May 5. 850mb temperatures are forecasted at +12°C, translating to surface highs well into the low 20s with efficient boundary layer mixing. This synoptic pattern strongly supports exceeding 17°C. The current model consensus has high agreement. 90% YES — invalid if significant cold air advection materializes post-trough passage.
Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance paints a clear picture: a strong upper-level ridge establishes over the Great Lakes by May 5. This synoptic feature drives significant thermal advection from the southwest, ensuring robust boundary layer warming. Ensemble mean high temperatures are consistently projecting 19-22°C, well above the 17°C threshold. The market undervalues this high-confidence warm up. 95% YES — invalid if a major cyclonic shift accelerates cold air intrusion before May 5.
