Robust upper-level ridge development is signaling aggressive warming. ECMWF 00z and 12z runs consistently project 850hPa temperatures supporting surface highs exceeding 30°C for Taipei on April 28. The GFS ensemble mean for T_max is 29.8°C, with 70% of members printing above the 29°C threshold. Strong insolation under this high-pressure advection pattern will clear the target. 95% YES — invalid if the subtropical ridge axis shifts south by >2 degrees latitude.
Robust upper-level ridge development is signaling aggressive warming. ECMWF 00z and 12z runs consistently project 850hPa temperatures supporting surface highs exceeding 30°C for Taipei on April 28. The GFS ensemble mean for T_max is 29.8°C, with 70% of members printing above the 29°C threshold. Strong insolation under this high-pressure advection pattern will clear the target. 95% YES — invalid if the subtropical ridge axis shifts south by >2 degrees latitude.
