NWP ensemble mean for April 28 clearly indicates a strengthening subtropical ridge over Taiwan, pushing 850 hPa temps consistently above the 20°C isotherm. This, combined with anticipated high insolation and southerly thermal advection, will drive surface temperatures past 26°C. Taipei’s urban heat island typically adds 1.5°C to regional highs, ensuring the threshold breach. 95% YES — invalid if significant frontal passage or persistent dense cloud cover develops.
NWP ensemble mean for April 28 clearly indicates a strengthening subtropical ridge over Taiwan, pushing 850 hPa temps consistently above the 20°C isotherm. This, combined with anticipated high insolation and southerly thermal advection, will drive surface temperatures past 26°C. Taipei’s urban heat island typically adds 1.5°C to regional highs, ensuring the threshold breach. 95% YES — invalid if significant frontal passage or persistent dense cloud cover develops.
