ECMWF 12z run consensus, strongly supported by GFS parallels, projects a robust upper-level ridge amplifying over SE China by May 5. This synoptic setup ensures significant subsidence and clear-sky insolation, driving strong diurnal thermal forcing. Surface analyses indicate weak pressure gradients with warm advection from the SW, enhancing boundary layer warming. Expect UHI to push values past the 26°C mark. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passage shifts the forecast after May 3.
ECMWF 12z run consensus, strongly supported by GFS parallels, projects a robust upper-level ridge amplifying over SE China by May 5. This synoptic setup ensures significant subsidence and clear-sky insolation, driving strong diurnal thermal forcing. Surface analyses indicate weak pressure gradients with warm advection from the SW, enhancing boundary layer warming. Expect UHI to push values past the 26°C mark. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passage shifts the forecast after May 3.
