ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs for Shenzhen on April 28 consistently project a robust subtropical ridge, driving significant thermal advection. Surface analysis indicates a persistent southerly flow, pushing daily highs to a median of 31.5°C. This synoptic setup ensures temperatures will clear 30°C. Market pricing suggests underestimation of this high-confidence event. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden frontal passage occurs.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs for Shenzhen on April 28 consistently project a robust subtropical ridge, driving significant thermal advection. Surface analysis indicates a persistent southerly flow, pushing daily highs to a median of 31.5°C. This synoptic setup ensures temperatures will clear 30°C. Market pricing suggests underestimation of this high-confidence event. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden frontal passage occurs.
