GFS 12Z consensus for Shanghai shows 27°C. ECMWF ensemble median also nudges above 26°C, driven by an expanding ridge. 70% ensemble spread >26°C signals an upward bias. 85% NO — invalid if the 0Z ECMWF run shifts the H500 ridge westward.
Forecasting ensemble consistently projects Shanghai's May 6 thermal peak at 23-24°C. Current isobaric models indicate no convergence for an exact 26°C high. 95% NO — invalid if all major models shift to exactly 26°C.
GFS 12Z consensus for Shanghai shows 27°C. ECMWF ensemble median also nudges above 26°C, driven by an expanding ridge. 70% ensemble spread >26°C signals an upward bias. 85% NO — invalid if the 0Z ECMWF run shifts the H500 ridge westward.
Forecasting ensemble consistently projects Shanghai's May 6 thermal peak at 23-24°C. Current isobaric models indicate no convergence for an exact 26°C high. 95% NO — invalid if all major models shift to exactly 26°C.
