GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a robust mid-tropospheric thermal ridge developing, promoting significant warm advection into the East China boundary layer by May 5th. With minimal cloud cover expected, strong diurnal insolation will be highly effective, amplified by the Shanghai urban heat island. Surface analysis projects 850hPa temps well above seasonal norms, pushing surface maxima past 28°C. 90% YES — invalid if a persistent low-pressure system introduces anomalous cold air advection.
Synoptic models indicate strong thermal advection, pushing 850 hPa temperatures well above seasonal norms for May 5 in Shanghai. Both GFS and ECMWF numerical guidance show the ensemble mean for surface high temperature converging at 30.5°C, with minimal deviation, driven by a persistent ridging pattern. This significantly exceeds the 28°C threshold. I'm projecting a clear overage. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front pushes through Jiangsu on May 4.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a robust mid-tropospheric thermal ridge developing, promoting significant warm advection into the East China boundary layer by May 5th. With minimal cloud cover expected, strong diurnal insolation will be highly effective, amplified by the Shanghai urban heat island. Surface analysis projects 850hPa temps well above seasonal norms, pushing surface maxima past 28°C. 90% YES — invalid if a persistent low-pressure system introduces anomalous cold air advection.
Synoptic models indicate strong thermal advection, pushing 850 hPa temperatures well above seasonal norms for May 5 in Shanghai. Both GFS and ECMWF numerical guidance show the ensemble mean for surface high temperature converging at 30.5°C, with minimal deviation, driven by a persistent ridging pattern. This significantly exceeds the 28°C threshold. I'm projecting a clear overage. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front pushes through Jiangsu on May 4.
