Ensemble agreement across operational models points to a dominant 500hPa ridge establishing over East China by April 27, driving robust warm advection. Surface temperatures will be further amplified by the urban heat island effect, pushing the daily high into extreme positive anomaly territory. The current market significantly misprices the probability of this thermal escalation. 85% YES — invalid if the ridge axis shifts significantly westward.
GFS ensembles show a robust ridge bringing significant thermal advection by Apr 27. Shanghai will see subsidence heating, driving temps. Forecast models point to 31°C+ as high probability. 90% YES — invalid if Siberian High overextends.
Ensemble agreement across operational models points to a dominant 500hPa ridge establishing over East China by April 27, driving robust warm advection. Surface temperatures will be further amplified by the urban heat island effect, pushing the daily high into extreme positive anomaly territory. The current market significantly misprices the probability of this thermal escalation. 85% YES — invalid if the ridge axis shifts significantly westward.
GFS ensembles show a robust ridge bringing significant thermal advection by Apr 27. Shanghai will see subsidence heating, driving temps. Forecast models point to 31°C+ as high probability. 90% YES — invalid if Siberian High overextends.
