GFS/ECMWF ensemble means show robust upper-air ridging and strong offshore flow by May 5, driving potent thermal advection. Probability distributions center precisely on 70-71°F. Max conviction on this warming trajectory. 95% YES — invalid if onshore flow initiates prematurely.
Onshore flow dominates. Models consistently project highs 64-67°F, below the 70-71°F range. A robust thermal ridge is absent, preventing significant warming. This is a low-probability event. 80% NO — invalid if persistent easterly flow develops.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means show robust upper-air ridging and strong offshore flow by May 5, driving potent thermal advection. Probability distributions center precisely on 70-71°F. Max conviction on this warming trajectory. 95% YES — invalid if onshore flow initiates prematurely.
Onshore flow dominates. Models consistently project highs 64-67°F, below the 70-71°F range. A robust thermal ridge is absent, preventing significant warming. This is a low-probability event. 80% NO — invalid if persistent easterly flow develops.
