ECMWF and GFS 00z ensemble means for KSEA May 5 indicate a high probability of the surface thermal profile peaking within the 60-61°F window. A persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a transient upper-level trough will suppress significant thermal advection, capping the diurnal warming. Current 850mb analysis firmly supports this range, with limited model spread. The probability density function is tightly centered here. 92% YES — invalid if a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone forms.
ECMWF and GFS 00z ensemble means for KSEA May 5 indicate a high probability of the surface thermal profile peaking within the 60-61°F window. A persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a transient upper-level trough will suppress significant thermal advection, capping the diurnal warming. Current 850mb analysis firmly supports this range, with limited model spread. The probability density function is tightly centered here. 92% YES — invalid if a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone forms.
